$1M–$3M: High Activity, More Choice, Slightly Softer Prices
Market snapshot (Nov 2025) • Available homes: 1,228 (down ~11% vs last month, up ~20% vs last year) • New listings: 215 (down ~38% MoM, up ~9% YoY) • Homes sold: 106 (down ~15% MoM, up ~5% YoY) • Median sales price: $1,315,000 (about 1% higher than last month, about 2% lower than last year) What this means for buyers ($1M–$3M) • You have more homes to choose from than last year, but slightly fewer than last month, which keeps things from feeling oversaturated. • Prices are essentially flat to slightly softer versus a year ago, which creates room for negotiation on homes that are not perfectly priced or perfectly presented. • With over 100 sales in a month, this segment is very active—good opportunities appear regularly if you’re prepared. What this means for sellers ($1M–$3M) • Even with more competition than last year, the segment is still moving well, with over 100 closings and a small uptick in median price month-over-month. • Buyers are price- and condition-sensitive. Clean, well-staged, and accurately priced homes are the ones winning quickly. • Think of this as a skills-based market: presentation, pricing strategy, and targeted marketing matter more than ever.
$3M–$5M: Strong Listing Activity, Selective Buyers
Market snapshot (Nov 2025) • Available homes: 187 (down ~6% MoM, up ~38% YoY) • New listings: 24 (down ~33% MoM, up ~85% YoY) • Homes sold: 5 (down ~50% MoM and ~44% vs last year) • Median sales price: $3,750,000 (up ~3% MoM, only ~1% below last year) What this means for buyers ($3M–$5M) • There are significantly more options than a year ago, but fewer new listings than last month—so the rush of new supply is calming. • Sales volume is lower, which means you often have more leverage, especially on homes that have been sitting. • Prices haven’t collapsed; they’ve been remarkably steady, so focus on value and uniqueness (view, architecture, lot, finishes) rather than expecting deep discounts across the board. What this means for sellers ($3M–$5M) • The big story here is competition: inventory is meaningfully higher than last year while the number of closings is lower. • The upside: median price is holding very close to last year and even up slightly from last month—proof that top-tier, well-positioned properties still achieve strong numbers. • To win in this bracket, your home needs a compelling story and exceptional presentation: architectural photography, lifestyle-driven marketing, and precise pricing are critical.
$5M–$10M: Quietly Strong, With Stable Pricing
Market snapshot (Nov 2025) • Available homes: 104 (essentially flat MoM, up ~6% YoY) • New listings: 15 (down ~17% MoM, up ~15% YoY) • Homes sold: 6 (down ~14% MoM, up ~20% YoY) • Median sales price: $6,272,500 (up ~7% MoM, roughly flat vs last year) What this means for buyers ($5M–$10M) • This segment is surprisingly balanced: inventory is modestly higher than last year, and closings are actually up year-over-year. • Prices have been very stable over the last year, with only small fluctuations—an encouraging sign if you’re investing at this level. • The real opportunity is in selectivity: you’re not competing in a frenzy, so you can take the time to choose the right property and negotiate terms. What this means for sellers ($5M–$10M) • This is one of the healthiest luxury ranges right now: more sales than last year and a median price that’s slightly rising month-over-month. • Buyers at this level are extremely discerning but serious. They’re not browsing; they’re curated in their search. • A thought-out launch—pre-market exposure, high-end media, and positioning the property as a “best in class” option within its micro-segment—can still produce excellent results.
$10M+: Ultra-Luxury: Thin Inventory, Big Price Moves
Market snapshot (Nov 2025) • Available homes: 48 (down ~9% MoM, down ~4% YoY) • New listings: 4 (down ~60% MoM, down ~33% YoY) • Homes sold: 1 (very low count; month-to-month stats here are volatile) • Median sales price: $14,250,000 (up ~14% MoM and ~34% vs last year, based on very few sales) What this means for buyers ($10M+) • The ultra-luxury space is thinly traded. Very few homes are hitting the market, and even fewer are selling in any given month. • With limited new inventory and highly unique properties, off-market and private opportunities matter more in this range. • Prices appear much higher than last year, but with such a small sample size, each sale can swing the stats. Focus on true comparables and intrinsic value, not headline numbers. What this means for sellers ($10M+) • Fewer new listings and slightly fewer total options mean serious sellers have more visibility, especially if the home is truly distinctive. • The strong jump in median price year-over-year underscores that best-in-class properties still command premium numbers when properly marketed. • Success at this level is less about “the market” and more about individual strategy: global reach, storytelling, privacy, and direct agent-to-agent relationships.
Big Picture:
A Balanced, Opportunity-Rich Luxury Market Across all price points: • Inventory is generally down from last month but higher than last year in most segments → more choice than a year ago, but not an oversupply. • New listings have cooled month-over-month (seasonal), but in the $1M–$10M range they are still up year-over-year → fresh product continues to come to market. • Sales are mixed: slightly softer in some bands month-to-month, but holding or improving versus last year in key ranges → this is a normalizing, not collapsing, market. • Prices are remarkably stable, with only small year-over-year movements in most segments and even notable strength at the top. $5M–$10M: Median price jumped to $7.88M, a 27% increase compared to September 2024. $10M+: Median closing price of $15.75M, reflecting a 45% increase compared to 18 months ago as trophy properties command premium values.
Final Takeaway
For buyers, this is a moment where: • You benefit from more options than last year, less frenzied competition, and steady pricing—ideal for making a thoughtful, long-term decision. For sellers, this is a market where: • Serious, well-prepared sellers still win, especially when they lean into strategic pricing, strong presentation, and professional, story-driven marketing.
